Los Altos Real Estate Blog

Last month was a fairly "normal" market for Los Altos Hills.  The average sales price was $2,279,000 which is on par with September and fairly reasonable compared to most months, perhaps a bit on the low side.  Sales of homes in the Hills slow down a lot at this time of year so with 6 homes sold, at least buyers are still showing signs of interest.  If that number had been at 3-4, I would say we're in trouble.  As it is, inventory levels are dropping...a lot.

There were only 3 new listings last month and 17 expired.  Combined with 6 sales, the overall selection of homes dropped quite a bit.  There's still plenty of choices in the $3-5 million range but the pickings are slim for homes priced at $2.5 million or less.  Buyers are faced with the limited selection are heading into the "off MLS" category to buy homes that either aren't finished (in construction), going to be built (starting in 2012), or finished homes.  There are several off market properties that are getting attention and buyers are making offers.  Since many of these off MLS transactions aren't included in the normal market analysis, I'm bringing them up here.

The trend in off market (or off MLS) sales is mainly in homes priced at $4-10 million, usually new construction or close to it.  Buyers are all cash and want a combination of privacy or value.  Sellers don't "looky loos" and keep the properties off the MLS to limit them.  There have been several sales this year and more likely before the end of the year.  These sales will skew the average selling price up substantially.

If you want to buy a home or estate in Los Altos Hills, you need an agent who knows the regular market AND the "off MLS" market.  Give me a call and I can direct you to homes and land available off the MLS with prices from $4.8 to 16 million.

The high-end real estate market of Los Altos Hills continues to show sustained strength, even going into Q4.  In Q4 2010, the market started to turn around and showed substantial improvement after years of falling prices.  In October 2011, the average and median selling prices were $2,934,000 and $1,950,000, respectively.  That's a 13.7% increase over last month (for the ASP) but a decline on the median.  Part of what impacts these figures is the fact that only a few homes sell.  There were 5 homes sold last month and the same number the previous month.  Overall this year, 86 homes have sold so far compared to only 64 last year (first 10 months).  Clearly, more homes are selling and at much higher prices.

The available inventory, while low, is still plenty for the available market and prices on the very high-end continue to take hits.  Homes priced at $5 million and more are seeing substantial price reductions both on and off the MLS.  There were 10 new listings this month, compared to 12 last month but with only 5 homes sold, the market saw a net gain inventory (adjusting for expireds).  There have been quite a few expired listings on the market and some of those are coming off and staying off.  One property that expired last month just came back on with new pricing so adjustments continue.  The "months supply of inventory" spiked last month to 11.6 from 10.2 last month, clearly a buyers market.  However, because of the range of prices, buyers should be aware that homes in the $2-4 million range, priced and located well, sell fast.  The other properties including ultra-high-end and small homes on poorly located lots as taking a while to get traction.

All that said, the market is expected to show a solid gain for the year.  Sales continue going into November and the overall sales rate for Q4 is still higher than last year.  If you are looking for property in Los Altos Hills, give me a call.

Los Altos Hills has definitely slowed down from the heavy market activity with the average selling price in September dropping to $2,115,000, down from $2,579,000 in August, 2011.  However, those figures don't reflect some off-market activity which pushes the numbers quite a bit.  The sales prices to listing price ratio is holding on at 96.1%, which is a good sign of stability in the market - something that was lacking last year.  What is disconcerting is the number of sales.

There were only 5 homes sold last month with 12 new homes listed (not including off market properties), which is the first time in 4 months there was a negative gap between the number of homes listed and the number of homes sold.  Part of this is because families buying to get into schools are no longer a factor in the market.  Sure, those buyers are out there but the numbers have dropped considerably.  That said, there has been an increase in buyers looking for lots and high-end luxury homes.  Based on my own clients and the buzz from other agents, we should see quite a few sales in the next 60 days to push up the number of sales.  We'll see a few more homes listed but not many.

The "days to sell" figure dropped nicely last month to 91, down from 126 in August.  That's another indicator that well priced homes are indeed selling.  Based on sales trends right now, I don't see that figure dropping substantially for the rest of the year.

In general, the best opportunity for buyers is with homes priced in the $2.5 - $4 million range.  There are plenty of homes listed right now and motivated buyers.  There are also a handful of off market properties that are getting some attention so working with a REALTOR who knows the off-market inventory will give you the best overall chance at getting the home you want.

Real estate sales in Los Altos Hills have done extremely well in 2011 and that continued in August even with the average sales price (ASP) dropping to $1,870,000 from about $2.6 million in July.  This is substantially below the ASP in August 2010 at $2.7 million.  Part of what drove the sharp price drop was the sale of several low priced properties.  The high-end market has cooled off but there are active buyers looking in the $4-15 million range.  The hottest market segment is in the $2-3 million range.

There were 14 homes sold in August compared to 9 sold in 2010.  With 8 new listings (compared to 20 in 2010), the trend is to lower inventory compared to last year.  The lack of inventory is a relection of buyer behavior so far this year and a good reason for why the low sales prices being an anomoly and not a trend. 

There have been some bargains sold and a few off MLS (aka off market) properties sold that will ultimately pull the values up even more.  Buyers are anxiously looking for homes in the $2-3 million range that offer a combination of views and good price-per-square foot.  There is a limited number of these homes and when good ones come on, they sell fast.

The average days to sell was up to 126, a huge spike, but again it's due to older, lower-priced properties selling.  Expect to see this number drop again next month.

Overall, the market in Los Altos Hills is still very strong and the year is shaping up to be a huge improvement over 2010.

This is a quick update on the broker tour for Los Altos and Los Altos Hills for August 26, 2011.  As was expected, there are only a few homes on tour this week and many are getting toured again since they've been on the market a while or have had a price drop.  One stunning price reduction is the home on Christopher Lane with a $1.3 million price drop and now down to $3.2 million.  For such a gorgeous home and over 5100 square feet, I think that home is an incredible deal.  If someone doesn't step up to buy that home in the next few days I'll be shocked.

One of the homes that had a small price reduction 2 weeks ago on Jessica Lane got an offer and sold.  So, while it might appear that getting these homes back on tour is a bad sign, it is in fact a necessary marketing tool to get the home sold.  The good news is that there are very few new homes on tour this week (in either town) which means another week without a flood of new inventory.  This puts pressure on buyers to step up and buy what is left in the market.  The bad news for buyers is that because next week goes into a holiday weekend, there will be even fewer new listings.

For this week, there are only three homes on tour in Los Altos Hills and two are being toured again after price reductions.  There is also one off-MLS property being toured on Prospect Avenue (my listing).  Otherwise, it's a very quiet Friday.  On slow tour days like this I'm hoping that agents will bring clients by while taking more time themselves to inspect the homes.  This week will also be a good chance to reconnect with other agents.  Networking can lead to business, new listings, and other deals.

Most of my readers know by now that the local real estate market has made huge strides in recovering this year.  Los Altos Hills is continuing the trend last month with 11 closed sales with an average selling price of $3,107,273.  This compares favorably to the July 2010 when there were 9 sales at about the same average selling price.  These numbers are a sugnificant jump from last month when only 9 homes sold at an average of $2,557,500.  The average selling price (ASP) often fluctuates wildly and isn't an indication that prices will continue to rise in such dramatic fashion.

The biggest difference is that last month there were 10 new listings compared to 11 this month.  In other words, in July sales matched new listings so inventory was the same.  In June there was a net gain.  There were a significant number of expired listings this month (22) compared to last month (9) and a net decline in inventory.  The overall listing price of new listings is lower than last month as well.  This trend implies that we'll see more listings near the ASP with fewer homes to chose from and strong sales to support the current price trend.  If this keeps up, we could see Los Altos Hills become the #1 or #2 luxury home ZIP code in the United States.

The average days to sell a home dropped to 44 in July, down from 53 in June and well below anything from last year.  This is a continuing trend as more well-priced homes come on the market and get sold in 2-4 weeks.  While very few of the homes are selling at or above the asking price, the fact that they're selling quick is a sign that buyers are confident of limited inventory and improving prices.  There are fewer and fewer buyers expecting to sit around waiting for "a deal".  Based on sales practices and history, the average days to sell numbers will not likely get too much better.  Also note that there are many homes still on the market for 6 or more months which will throw off this figure in any given month.

Another word on inventory.  Most analysts will tell you that when there are 6 or fewer months of inventory, it's a sellers market.  Last month there were 5.7 months of inventory and this month there are 5.1 months of inventory.  When the market shifts strongly into a sellers market, prices tend to rise and the days to sell drops as it has.  Since we're going into a period where there are fewer homes placed on the market, buyers should be prepared to make offers quickly to avoid disappointment.  Luxury markets all over Silicon Valley have recovered nicely and I expect that to continue into 2012.

If you're looking to buy or sell a home in Los Altos Hills, give me a call.

As of today, there are only 49 homes for sale in Los Altos Hills and two of those homes are priced at $17 and $19.5 million which makes the choices very limited.  Most of the newest listings have sold with a few weeks of listing, much faster than the "average days on market".  With so little inventory in a hot market and prices doing so well, are buyers worried that they won't find a home?  Some are and some aren't.

What I'm hearing from some agents is that buyers with a real need are finding what they want, or something close, and getting offers in.  This is what has caused many homes to receive multiple offers.  The buyers who don't win on one house move onto another.  If they don't see something worthwhile, they consider other towns to buy in.  A popular comparison to Los Altos Hills is Atherton and Saratoga is an optionas well.  Even when looking at those markets, the number of homes for sale is still low enough that buyers are left wondering what options they really have. 

There are only 19 homes for sale in the critical $2-3 million price range.  This is where many first time and move-up buyers get into Los Altos Hills.  With so few options, buyers are left waiting for more homes to come on the market.  Unfortunately, there have been very few new listings in July and several of the newest listings have been smaller, lower priced homes.  In the growing high-end range of $3-4 million homes, there are only 7 houses for sale.  What's an extremely limited selection and puts intense pressure on buyers to choose or look elsewhere.

The concern for buyers now is whether or not they'll see anything come on the market before the end of summer.  I know of a few "off market" properties that will come on the market over the next 30 days.  Those homes appear to be well priced and well located which means buyers will have to move quickly to take advantage of the opportunities.  If you're an active buyer looking for homes in Los Altos Hills, give me a call and I'll show you what's coming soon.  There are some very nice new homes coming on the market. 

I've had several buyers in recent months ask about price trends in Los Altos Hills.  This segment of the buyer pool is usually looking in the $2.5 million to $3.0 million price range, are moving up, and looking for a deal.  Most of these buyers are looking at trend information from Zillow, Trulia and/or Redfin and trying to see if the average selling price is going down so they can drive a hard deal on a current listing.  I try to explain that the market has changed but they often times don't listen to what's going on.  The bottom line is that home sales and prices are up in Los Altos Hills...significantly.

In the first six months of 2010, the average selling price for homes was $2,417,510 which was pretty good considering how few homes sold in 2009.  The high-end market was terrible in 2009 and made a moderate recovery in 2010, especially toward the end of the year.  In the first 6 months of 2011, the average selling price for homes in Los Altos Hills is $2,739,381.  That's an increase of about 13.25% so far and much better than the .9% decline in average selling prices for 2010.  This sharp rise in the price of homes sold in Los Altos Hills is driven by a significant increase in sales of ultra-high-end homes as well as more traditional homes.  With several sales in the $4-10 million range this year, both the media and average have done well.

Another change in the market is the average days on market.  When looking at the market as a whole, there's not much change.  When you look at overall number it's about 80 days.  When you look at new listings, it's much less.  There have been several new listings sold in their first 30 days.  That's in line with the norm in Los Altos and a major shift from the market in Los Altos Hills over recent years.  What this means is that for buyers, moving relatively quickly on new opportunities is essential.  It used to be that buyers could sit and wait for a seller to bring their price down.  However, that is no longer the case with every property.  You'll need to make a decision much faster and write an offer quickly.

The trend toward a higher average selling price is still continuing in July 2011.  While the recent activity will cool down during August and the rest of the year, based on sales patterns last year prices should retain most of the gains they've made so far.  If you'd like more details on the sales price per square foot or sales in a particular price band (e.g. homes listed at $2-3M), give me a call and I'll be happy to give you the specific numbers.

Prices in Los Altos Hills for 2011

The Los Altos Hills real estate market is continuing to show signs of strength across all price segments.  While bargain hunters continue to scour the market for bargains, many buyers are stepping into to snap up well-priced homes in prime locations with multiple offers.  There have been more homes sold in Los Altos Hills with multiple offers in June 2011 and all-cash buyers are still out in force.  The average and median selling prices were $2,557,500, and $2,220,000 respectively for June 2011.  This is up substantially from last month and the same period last year but still lower than the best prices for all of 2011.  However, it still shows a strong upward trend in prices overall.

Inventory is shrinking and the rate of sales if keeping pace with listings.  There were 10 new listings in June and 10 closed sales.  That match-up hasn't happened in either this year or last year which bodes well for sellers.  Also, overall inventory is lower than it has been with only 62 homes on the market in June 1011 versus 67 last month and 73 last year.  There have been a few homes where the listings expired and they have not returned to the market.  We are seeing some off-market sales and I'll get details of those when the tax records are updated.  However, over the last 2 months we've seen 21 homes sold versus 13 for the same two months last year.  That reflects the trend overall in Los Altos Hills for 2011.

The percentage of listing price received was 97.3% which is up 96.67% last month and well over the same period last year.  This shows the continuing trend to have homes priced well and sell relatively fast.  While not as good as Los Altos, it shows that the market in Los Altos Hills is relatively healthy.  The average days on market dropped to 80 days which is substantially lower than the 103 days is was last month.  This also shows that more recent listings are selling fast and the older inventory is what is keeping the overall days on market figure higher. 

Very little new inventory has been coming on the market in Los Altos Hills.  Only a couple of new homes were placed on the market in the last week of June and only one has been placed on the market so far in July.  This trend to seeing fewer homes on the market along with declining inventory should result in buyers closing out more of the existing inventory and and further reduction of available homes so that we finally return to a balanced market.  There is about 6 months inventory in Los Altos Hills right now which, based on demand, is a balanced market.  However, of the availabe listings, 6 of them are at prices well above the typical sale (priced at $8M+) so the real inventory is actually much lower.  If the market can see a shift into a sellers market, we'll see more recovery in prices as we have in Los Altos.

Los Altos Hills has had an interesting month.  In May 2011, the average and median prices of homes sold dropped substantially to $2,185,000 and $2,200,000, respectively.  Compared to April 2011, when the average sales price was $3,073,000 is looks as if the Los Altos Hills market has experienced a massive shift.  Quite the opposite was true.  What has happened is that the low-end picked up as buyers took advantage of great opportunities.  The high-end had a great month last month and now the rest of the market is catching up.

The inventory is still a factor and is well in line with the strength of the market.  There were 22 new homes on the market compared to 21 last month.  This is up slightly from last year when only 16 new homes were added to the market but the market in 2011 is very different than 2010.  More than twice as many homes sold in May 2011 as did in May 2010, with 11 homes selling last month versus 5 homes sold last year.  Sales in May 2011 were identical to April 2011 which confirms the continued strength in the Los Altos Hills market.  While current inventory increased a bit in May with 67 homes for sale in Los Altos Hills, the figure is still well below the same period last year when there were 76 homes on the market.  Based on current trends, inventory in Los Altos Hills is unlikely to increase any time soon.

Several homes sold quickly which is something I've been pointing out about the Los Altos Hills real estate market.  Of the 11 homes that sold, 4 were sold between 8 and 15 days.  This same thing happened to a similar degree in April.  So, the trend in Los Altos Hills right now is that well-priced homes below the median and average selling prices are going out the door fast.  Buyers who are looking for deals should keep this in mind and not sit around waiting to see if prices will drop.  Los Altos Hills homes sold for a bit over 96% of their asking prices.  That figure continues to improve as these new listings sell at or over their asking prices.  The average is pulled down by older listings that are finally getting cleared out.

The average days on market is still low at only 103 days.  That is up from last month at 94 but that's because two homes that sold were on for 214 and 329 days which really skewed the numbers.  This figure is still well below the same period last year when homes sold were on the market an average 143 days. 

The Los Altos Hills real estate market is very much back on track after 2 years of price declines and other challenges.  Anyone considering buying a home in Los Altos Hills should be serious and willing to move quickly when opportunities arise.