Los Altos Real Estate Blog

Mountain View was one of the last markets to get hit during the meltdown of the economy.  It had held strong through 2008 as buyers continued to focus on good schools and reasonable prices with close proximity to major employers, particularly those in the tech space.  A fairly balanced inventory and prices kept the market over $1.067 million in 2008.  However, in 2009 prices dropped substantially with a final average of $945,000.  What's interesting is that sales actually rose, increasing about 2% of 2008.  Sales continued to rise in 2010 with a slight drop in 2011.  Part of the strong sales figures has been that there are many affordable condos and townhouses in Mountain View - many priced in the $100,000-300,000 range.  With good quality schools, that made the area appealing for both buyers and investors.

The trend on average selling price didn't so quite as well with prices rising slightly in 2010, up about 1% to $954,000.  The story in 2010 was one of a glut of property and with so many choices, buyers had command of deals.  In the strongest neighborhoods, things remained fairly balanced (Cuesta Park, Varsity Park, Waverly Park, etc) but lesser neighborhoods had plenty of inventory and nothing to drive them up.

That changed in 2010 as inventors snapped up most of what was available and inventory become more limited.  That trend carried over into 2011 where homes that had languished on the market for many months or years eventually sold.  There were a couple of homes on the market in Waverly Park that seemed to take forever (very close to Hwy 85).  Those last few "bargains" held the average selling price gains down in 2011 but the overall figure still rose to break $1M for the first time in 3 years.

The trend in 2012 is continued strength with substantial price increases.  Multiple offers are much more common and top neighborhoods are seeing prices 5-10% over asking prices in some situations.  Based on the shortage of inventory and evidence of sales so far this year, I expect we'll see the Mountain View real estate market for single-family homes rise at least 5% with prices approaching their peak from 2007.

The Mountain View market has been very strong for the past year and that trend continues.  As we finished last year the average selling price (ASP) was trending up and that has continued into 2012.  Many buyers are still confused about the local market trends compared to what they hear on the news.  National reports still talk about rampant foreclosures, price declines, and lots of inventory.  That is NOT the case in Mountain View, California!

The National Assocation of REALTORS shows a decline of 4.8% in the ASP for the country in January, while Mountain View increased last month.  This trend is likely to continue as there is s shortage of inventory.  Moreover, the price range and overall trend is basically flat nationally over the last 2 years compared to Mountain View which has been trending up for the last 2 years.  As a consumer, you need to keep in mind that the national trends are completely different from the local trends.  While the local market may see seasonal declines just like the national market, the overall up trend and strong demand are completely different.

The trend in Mountain View compared to nationwide is likely to remain different.  Here are some key points:

• National sales are up while prices are declining
• Mountain View sales are up and prices are increasing
• National pricing trend is flat over time
• Mountain View pricing trend is up over time
• National new construction is moderately up
• Mountain View new construction is subtantially up

The chart below shows the current trends in Mountain View, California.  As with last year, the average selling price is likely to increase substantially in Q1 and Q2, then ease in Q3 2012.  This is normal seasonal behavior.  The difference between the local market and the nation is that prices do no come down as substantially.

Most buyers know that homes sold very well last year in good neighborhoods and Mountain View was no exception.  With good schools, beautiful neighborhoods, and lots of new construction the demand for housing was strong.  The average selling price for single-family homes was up 5.2% compared to 2010 to $1,003,114.  That's the first time in years the number has been so high.  It's being driven by two things; sales of new/newer construction homes and a shortgage of inventory.  I saw one home with Los Altos schools sell for 20% over its asking price - just because there was nothing else available!

The inventory levels were extremely low in Q4 which saw most homes sell fast and high.  While only 289 homes sold, down 10 units from 2010, the real story on inventory is that new listings were down 25 units - part of a 3 year trend in declining inventory.  Mountain View has started to see more "off market" properties show up as agents can sell them to buyers without even going on the MLS.

The side effect of this demand is that the average days on market - the time is takes to market and close a sale - was down to 41 days, from 46 in 2010, an 11% improvement.  The sales price to list price ratio also improved, going to 100.6% in 2011, up from 99.8% in 2010.  There was a significant number of multiple offer situations in the best neighborhoods and most of those were all cash.  All-cash buyers were so frequent that they seldom had any advantage.  Offers came down to terms and most often the winning terms were 10 day closes, as-is, no contingencies - basically "Here's are cash, give us the deed".

Mountain View will continue to be a hot market in 2012 with buyers waiting in the wings for new listings.  There is an in-flux of buyers relocating for local technology companies and that is driving interest.

Home buyers stayed busy in December snapping up 32 homes and making the average sales price $969,480.  The number of homes sold was an astounding 32 with only 13 new homes added to the inventory.  As with all the other nearby towns, inventory is very low and many homes are snapped up as soon as they hit the market.

The number of days to sell has been rising but that's because the older inventory has been selling off.  The best neighborhoods are still seeing homes sold in the first week or two on the market.  The hardest places to find a home now are Blossom Valley and Waverly Park neighborhoods.

There were a large number of expired listings which is typical for December.  Based on the rate of sales, even if those come back on the market, they would only add 2 months of inventory to the Spring market.  If demand increases over Spring 2011, then it would last even less.

There are a small number of off-market properties and extremely few rentals.  The entire market is poised for a huge Spring season.  Only a handful of new listings have come on this week and most are at the low-end of the market.  With The Enclave selling well and inventory low, I highly recommend buyers decide quickly and brace themselves for multiple offer situations.

The Mountain View real estate market is facing a typical seasonal downturn in terms of pricing, with the average selling price at $907,110 which is down from just over $1 million last month.  What's interesting is that the number of homes sold was 22 which is a substantial rise compared to October.  This strange combination of figures is because several older, less expensive homes have been selling in sections of the town that don't normally do well.  The top markets such as Cuesta Park and Waverly Park have little inventory and this can't counter all the low-end sales.

Another factor shifting the market is the Enclave at Waverly Park which is a new 50 home subdivision at the corner of Grant Road and Levine Avenue.  That is pulling buyers out of the regular market and into their market.  Most of the sales in that subdivision aren't being reported on the MLS so it's skewing the market results further.  The real story, not seen in the stats, is that the subdivision is selling very well and prices have risen from the $1.6 million range to the $1.8-1.9 million range in the last 6 months.  That's substantial and very telling for what we'll see in the overall market.

With only 17 new listings and 22 sold homes, combined with 21 expired listings, the inventory of available homes for sale is very low.  This is seasonal but with the trend to sell more homes than are listed, the options for buyers will decline.  As with other nearby markets, many buyers are opting to rent for the short term while they sort out their options.  This means that while sales remain strong, there is demand building.  If the right opportunity comes along, I suggest buying a home now before prices spike next year.

Mountain View continues to be a strong market but slowed a bit in September 2011, with the average sales price dropping to about $979,000 from $,1032,000 last month.  That's in line with the season and a general slowdown in high-end sales in the pricey neighborhoods such as Waverly Park.  The good news is that there were 28 homes sold, up from 24 in August which shows solid activity.  There were 35 new listings though which means another month of net inventory gain.  We can expect to see these numbers reverse in the next 90 days as fewer homes come on the market and sales continue.

Another good sign for the market is that the sales price to list price ratio is still high at 101.8%, which means that properties are selling over the asking prices.  I had clients make an offer on a property in Waverly Park, basically a tear-down, that had 10 offers.  The best neighborhoods in Mountain View are getting lots of offers because of the towns ever improving schools and limited home choices.  The inventory levels and prices are strongest in Varisty Park, Cuesta Park, and Waverly Park.  Although the St. Francis Acres and San Antonio (with Los Altos schools) neighborhoods do fairly well.  My advice to buyers is to know what you want and move quickly.

What's more interesting is that that the days to sell increased to 43 from 30 last month.  With prices moving up, this number should fall but it actually increased.  This comes from a combination of a little delay in getting offers as well as some older listings clearing out.  We saw similar numbers in April when the market was hot.

Overall, the market appears set to finish off the year with strong sales figures which should make 2011 an overall strong performer compared to 2010. 

Mountain View has had a really good year and continues with a strong August sales record.  The average and median prices were $1,032,065 and $993,000 respectively which is up substantially over July 2011 and August 2010 which both showed figures in the mid to hig $900s. 

The number of homes sold is lower than the same period last year, 25 in 2011 vs. 30 in 2010.  That means that months supply of inventory is also lower.  But at 2.5 months, Mountain View is definitely a SELLERS MARKET!  I've been in several multiple offer situations this year and seen homes get 6, 8, 10 or more offers on everything from dumpy plow-down homes to completely remodeled beauties.  The best markets including Waverly Park, Cuesta Park, St. Francis Acres, and Varsity Park are getting a lot of attention from buyers.  Anywhere in Mountain View where the homes have Los Altos schools is a "sure thing" as long as the price isn't completely ridiculous.

There were only 27 new single-family homes listed in August versus 37 last year.  That lower inventory is what is helping boost multiple offers.  Some buyers are heading over to "The Enclave" in Waverly Park but their inventory of homes is not hurting sales.  That project sold out their initial build and is taking names for the remaining homes in the 50 home development.

This sunday I'll be holding open a spectacular home that features fine craftsmanship and high-grade extras not found in ordinary homes.  This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has 1810 square feet of living space that is both efficient and inviting.  The spacious entry leads directly to the expansive family room that is pre-wired for top-of-the-line audio and video entertainment.  There's plenty of room to curl up by the gas fireplace or walk outside to the backyard with two sets of french doors.

The huge dining room can easily accomodate a table suitable for 8 people with ample space for a full china cabinet and buffet.  A bay window adds a extra sense of space and luxury to the room.  The immediately adjacent kitchen is designed with the gourmet chef in mind.  Fine cherry cabinetry, granite counters, commercial quality stainless-steel appliances, and plenty of counter space make this room perfect for hosting in-kitchen parties or everyday cooking.  The breakfast nook is bright and looks out to the front yard.

A major bright spot is the master bedroom suite.  While being large with plenty of closet space it also has a master bath oasis with a huge tub.  There's another set of french doors leading out to the backyard deck.  The backyard is cozy with the overall lot at 5525 square feet.

What I like about this house the most is that it is loaded with high-end materials and craftsmanship, typically found in far more expensive homes.  For example, the AV closet holds all the electronics, has wiring for the whole house, and is ventilated - something seen in high-end homes with private theaters.  The quality of the solid wood doors, hardwood flooring (3/4 inch solid), cabinetry, stonework, and molding are all exceptional.  I've seen and sold plenty of high-end homes and this place has "the stuff".

Stop by this Sunday and we'll talk about it in more detail.

Listing Price:  $1,398,000

1045 Morton Court, Mountain View, California

OPEN: Sunday, July 31, 2011 1:30 to 4:30PM

Listing agent is Marc Roos, Sereno Group, Los Altos

MLS ID is 81125544

In brief, very quicky!  One way many buyers who want Los Altos schools but can't quite make the leap in price to getting the Los Altos address is to buy a home in Mountain View with Los Altos schools.  There are a few neighborhoods in Mountain View that offer Los Altos schools including St. Francis Acres, Varsity Park, Waverly Park, and Gest Ranch.  Each of these neighborhoods offers a very different feel in terms of the styles of homes, proximity to schools and services, and which Los Altos schools are offered.

Right now, as of May 2011, the market for homes in these areas is phenomenal.  Homes that have come on the market so far this year have all had multiple offers and sold fast - within the first week.  The number of offers on many is as low as 3 and well over 10.  However, these Mountain View homes are also priced 10-20% less than their equivalent Los Altos counterparts.  For a savvy buyer on a budget, these homes in Mountain View are certainly worth consideration.  Since the market is so competitive, just be aware that making a full price offer is not sufficient to win.  An all-cash, full-price offer is not enough to get these homes.  One home in Mountain View with Los Altos schools started at $1,200,000 and sold with multiple offers for over $1,400,000 with lots of all cash offers.

Timing is everything and some neighborhoods have more demand than others.  Of all the neighborhoods, St. Francis Acres is arguably the lowest priced of the group.  Varsity Park and the other areas that go to Springer Elementary School in Los Altos all command about the same premium.  The highest of the group is Waverly Park, which has some streets that go to Oak Elementary School - arguably the best school in the Los Altos School District (based on API scores).  The Waverly Park neighborhood has the highest priced homes in Mountain View.

Knowing which neighborhoods have the lowest prices and highest demand helps build a strategy to buy.  You have a better chance with the neighborhoods going to Spring Elementary than the others.  Also, time of year is important.  Right now is the most active time to buy.  That will decline as we move into the summer months.  Spring is always the busiest time as parents try to get their kids into schools.  If you don't have to buy in Spring, wait until late summer or fall.

There are a few other considerations including property condition, size, and number of bedrooms.  I'm happy to discuss the particulars with anyone.