Los Altos Real Estate Blog

I have.  Here's the story of the one I saw.  It was a typical Thursday commute in Silicon Valley.  I was heading northbound on Highway 280 going from Cupertino to Los Altos.  This is a 4 lane highway that meanders through the hills of the San Francisco Peninsula.  Lo and behold, I come up on a grey Toyota Prius with the words "Google Self-Driving Car" on the lower body trim.  It had a thing on the top that looked like a narrow ski rack and a camera much smaller than the ones they use for taking pictures for StreetView.

The car was in the 2nd lane and driving at exactly the speed limit.  It had a wide gap between it and the next car.  When traffic slowed, it slowed down too.  There was a driver in the driver's seat but he appeared to be doing something that looked like reading.  The car was...driving itself.

Personally, I'm impressed by these things and see the potential of what they offer.  Instead of driving, I can be doing all sorts of other things with the time I'm in the car. Why drive when I can do get some work done or whatever else I need to get done?  Plus, with the automation, I think we'll have far fewer accidents and much more efficient traffic flow.  That's just a theory on my part.

Anyway, pay attention to the roads.  Watch out for your own self-driving car sighting.

Social media and networks are constantly in our face, in the media, and their very presence is pervasive in the daily lives of hundreds of millions of people around the world.  From Facebook to LinkedIn to Twitter, you can't go a day without someone you know, somewhere doing something online.  At what point is it all just...too much?

Along comes Pinterest...the latest in a long line of novel social media outlets.  This one offers the ability to "pin" photos and engage in dialog about them.  If that photo is copyrighted, you might actually see a lawsuit (or so I've heard).  I've taken a look at Pinterest and to me it just seems like another way to spend more time online.  Don't we already tagged photos on Facebook?  Do we really need Pinterest or is this just "the next big thing" and a momentary novelty to waste our time?

Real estate is a contact sport

That means real-world, in-person contact, not online.  You can start building relationships online but eventually they MUST move into the real world.  More real world time means more business.  Sure, having your name or business smeared all over another social network increases your chances of being found.  How how much is enough?  Is it enough to be on Facebook and other existing sites?  We don't need another social network.

Real estate is about people and relationships

Social media, like texting, tends to make contact less personal - in my opinion - and more like soundbites.  You can't have a meaningful conversation on Twitter.  Looking at Pinterest, it looks similar in that long dialogs aren't likely.  There are conversations but they appear to be "fluffy".  Do we need more fluff or more substantial?  We don't need another social network focused on "fluff".

I have nothing against social media.  I like it and spend time online every day networking with friends, family, and colleagues.  My networks of choice are Facebook and LinkedIn but I also use Plaxo and Twitter.  They all have their place but do we really need another one that simply wastes our time?  I'm not just talking about Pinterest.  Any other novel way of social networking seems to me, at this point, to be a feature of what already exists.  For me, I'll stay focused on what works and will watch to see where this one goes.

I'm posting this on my blog so my clients can know that while I see the professional need to be on social networks, that's not where I spend all my time.  You can find me in the real world, buying and selling homes.

Zillow is wildly popular, especially the often reviled Zestimate.  Trulia has a loyal following as well with their Q&A being popular.  Consumers seem to like the information the get from Redfin and agents often send their client there to get information on their own.  With all these different real estate search engines, it makes me wonder if something isn't missing.  Is there a "best of breed" solution that takes the best of them all and makes one better than the other.

Here's my question to you; what's the dream real estate search engine?  If you could go to a website and it does exactly what you want, what would it do?

Some of the things I wish these guys would do better include:

• More accurate AVM.  It's not rocket science but Zillow seems so far off the mark most times.
• Only what I need on the screen.  I don't want to see all the homes for sale, rent, etc as on Zillow.  Less is more.
• Local answers to local questions.  Nobody from Virginia answering questions about Los Angeles.

There are a lot of other real estate search engines for condos, rentals, and more, some confined to a particular geography just for local markets.  Some have a strong following and others just seem to...exist.  While the various major providers have loyal fans, none of them seems to be in a position to dominate the market as Google did with internet search.  If someone came up with the perfect real estate search engine, could it dominate?  I think it could.

Here's the one benefit I'd like to get from whatever the final solution is; faster results.  I want to shorten the amount of time it takes to find the ideal home.  It takes buyers months to find homes with or without an agent because the right tools aren't out there to speed up the process.  I think the right online tool could change that.  What do you think?

You have a smartphone, right?  Many agents do.  Are you also paying for a separate card or device to connect your laptop or tablet to the internet?  How much is that costing you?  $20, $40, $60?  Ouch!  Well, never fear, Bryan's here with a hot tip to save you money.

I'm not a big fan of greedy corporations and especially the cell phone companies who charge excessive fees to use the data bandwidth on my phone.  I rarely download much beyond email so I'm not using much of what I'm paying for.  I get 2GB per month to download and I usually use about 10% of that.  Why do they care if I use the rest with my laptop?  Many companies, Verizon and AT&T included, have banned applications that "tether" your smartphone to a laptop or other device to gain access to the internet.  The solution:  PDA Net!

This nifty little application has been around for years and I used it with my Treo before moving over to the "HTC Incredible" Android-based phone.  PDA Net allows you to use the tethering cable for your smartphone to connect to the internet.  It's incredibly easy to use and supports nearly every phone and operating system.  For $20, you'll be able to connect to the internet using your smartphone without paying any other fees -- EVER.

• They support MacOS, Windows (32 and 64 bit), Android, WebOS, iOS, and others
• The run on Apple, Android, Blackberry, Windows Mobile, and other smartphones

The installation takes a few minutes and they offer easy to follow directions. Just load the software on your desktop, launch the app on your smartphone, connect the tether cable, and you'll be on the internet in seconds!

The company that provides the software is called June Fabrics and the application is called PDAnet.  Get 'em and start saving today!

At about 9AM yesterday, right in the middle of work, my laptop faded to black...literally.  The screen went blank and the power went off.  I thought the batter had died but it was more than that.  My computer crashed.  For many, this is utterly terrifying!  Your first thought is "What about my files?" followed by a long list of other questions.  If you computer dies, my first advice is "DON'T PANIC!".  Here's a few quick steps to get you back on track without worrying.

STEP 1:  Make sure it's really crashed.  For laptops, unplug the battery and power, and let them sit for a minute or two.  They might have overheated.  Reconnect the power and try again.  The other specific items you want diagnosed are:

• Power supply
• Memory

Take your PC to a repair shop and ask them to check those specific items.  Such testing should cost much less than the usual

STEP 2:  Don't waste your time or money at a data recovery service.  Your hard drive can be removed, installed in an external enclosure, and plugged into your new system via a USB connection.  You'll be able to copy all your data off without paying more than $20 for the external enclosure.  Far less than the $100 or so a recovery service costs.

STEP 3: Get a new system.  I recommend getting a system with an Intel i5 processor as it has excellent "bang for the buck".  This applies to laptops and desktops.  Reinstall your programs one by one and eliminate any that you don't need. 

Most of you have heard about the new Facebook Timeline and all the new features it promises.  You'll be able to see every friend you've every added or dropped, every comment ever posted, every status update, and more - all in a nice, easily searchable interface.  Timeline isn't available for everyone yet, but I've got it - thanks to adding a developers account courtesy of a tip from Chris Alston.  Facebook Timeline is interesting because it opens up everything you've ever done including photos, video, text, and anything else you ever did on Facebook since the day you joined.  For some people, they would rather leave the past there or at least prevent people from seeing too much of it.

In a very timely article on PCWorld.com this morning, an article on Facebook Timeline discussed what settings you need to set to limit the scope of who sees your details.  You could do it manually but there are easier ways.

Tip #1:  Make all posts "Friends Only" - This setting uses the newer "Limit the audience for past posts" setting to "friends only".  That means your information is only available to people you friend on Facebook and not "friends of friends" or the public.  Read the PCWorld article for more details.

Tip #2:  Limit the posts seen by others - This requires blocking out the specific posts of one or more people.  Edit the settings for "How you connect" and choose "custom" for "Who can see posts by others..." to add specific people or lists (new feature).  Read the PCWorld article for more details.

I bring this to your attention because having seen the new Facebook Timeline interface, it was be very revealing.  The information was always there and people would see it before but it wasn't easily organized.  You could see anyone's old information using the current format just by scrolling down and selecting "See older posts" but that's hard when going back years.  Now it's easy.

Last Friday night the internet went crazy with bloggers and tech writers telling stories of the HP Touchpad tablet computer being sold for the obscenely low price of $99 or $149.  The product is only 49 days old, launched to the voices of critics panning it, and with a huge uphill battle against the forces of Apple (with iOS) and Google (with Android).  At the same time, Hewlett Packard has announced that it is leaving the PC business entirely because, while it generates over $40 billion in revenue, it's a low margin business.  However, as soon as the announcement to heavily discount the Touchpad hit the news, one question was on everyone's mind - Can we convert it to support Android?

Even the critics will admit that the tablet is actually pretty good with high-performance and good features.  However, it uses WebOS which has so little market share that any chance of every gaining would be a miracle to say the least.  Here's my theory: 

• The HP Touchpad is built with hardware that is already used in other devices that support Android.
• The firesale over the last 2 days has resulted in over 350,000 units sold and many more than that are being sold by retailers.
• Touchpad sales are eating up buyers of iPads and Android tablets

What if this is all a ploy to actually gain market share overnight!  If the Touchpad can support the Android operating system it would mean HP (or the company that actually acquires their PC business) would have a huge chunk of the tablet market literally overnight.  There are public contests to successfully install the Android OS onto the HP Touchpad.  It's theoretically possible.  So, what if this is all a ploy to get a million Android devices into the hands of would-be iPad owners overnight?

I think it's possible.  Of course, this theory has to have a revenue positive side or it wouldn't be worth the gamble.  If they're not making money on the hardware perhaps they have a plan to make money on services.  That I don't know.  But it seems to me that even with the future promise of a slick iPad 3, having a million new devices in the market makes things interesting.  What do you think?

A significant number of news articles quote the Case-Schiller Index as a sign of how good or bad the overall national market is doing.  At times when the index is up, people are happy, when it's down they're unhappy.  The problems with the Case-Shiller Index include not covering sub-markets, not using price bands that really represent the market, and using "sales pairs" which only show a statistically small portion of the market.  Their definition of "high-end" in each market is a joke, they don't break down sub-markets of the markets they track, they exclude markets that are doing well, and they don't give a reasonable timeframe for reporting.  It takes them two months to publish their report.  Really!?  Two months ago might as well be forever.  Markets change and all the Case-Shiller index does is give people headaches and stomach acid. I used to respect their index until they showed the SF Bay Area as having problems.  One reason is that they don't include Santa Clara County in their calculations.  Hello!  We have some of the best performing markets in the country.  A significant portion of the local market is up...WAY UP and the Case-Shiller index is missing it.

So, knowing the flaws in Case-Shiller and realizing that it is lacking in so many ways, I'm going to create a new index.  Since using last names seems to be popular, I'll call it the Robertson Home Value Index (RHVI).  If anyone has better ideas, I'm all ears because the name doesn't matter, it's all about reporting statistics that make sense.  Here's how my index will work so that we can see an accurate accounting of how well the market is doing.  Here are the elements of my index:

Price Bands:  Prices are relative, everywhere.  An entry level condo in San Jose can be priced the same as a 4-bedroom home in Ohio.  It's not fair to compare the two.  So, the RHVI will use the MEDIAN SELLING PRICE of the local market as a baseline.  It will then use that baseline to set high and low bands.  There will be 4 bands - high-end (200+% of the median), upper mid-range (125-199% of median), mid-range (75-125% of median), and low-end (74% or less of median).  This gives my index 4 relative bands versus Case-Shiller's 3 fixed bands and shows a true "high-end" of the market.

Co-Located Sub-Markets:  Or in easier language, local markets that are peripheral to the primary market.  Using the Bay Area as an example, the RHVI will use San Francisco as a primary market and publish stats only for that market.  It will then include the top 3 local neighboring markets based on their relationship to the SF Market.  Which local markets are included will be done with the same relative calculations as those used to define the price bands noted above.  That way, all the calcuations will be relative.

No Sales Pairs:  What the economists forget in their sales pair methodology is that a home selling twice only shows a subset of the market behavior.  A home purchased for a high price in 2008 that sells today at a good market price might look like it has dropped in value.  Which is true, but it misses out that it sold in line with other comps.  Sales pairs fail to show a general market trend.  By using all sales, true trends can be shown.

Obviously this could take a long time to explain but I'm working on a spreadsheet using all the sales data in the area.  I'll see what I can come up with but in my estimate, whatever the final product, it will show a more accurate picture than Case-Shiller.

With Free Data, You Get What You Pay For
We all have clients who go to Zillow, CyberHomes and other sites to get an estimate of the value of their home.  An article in the Sacramento Bee a couple of weeks ago talked about how far off these sites can be.  Even Zillow's chief economist says they are accurate to within 10% on their best day.  Since it's free to consumers, do these sites do more damage than good.  Is the free data offered without the expertise of an agent setting expectations higher or lower than they should be?  The value of Zillow and other automated estimating sites is just as they present themselves, a starting point.  Where they fall short is in areas where the homes become more distinctive.

It's Just A Step Along The Way
A lot of agents, myself included, feel that in some markets these estimates are so far off the mark as to be at least useless and at most dangerous.  Sellers could feel their home is undervalued and decide not to sell.  Buyers could get unrealistic expectations on value and press agents to make offers based on those estimates.  However, I seldom see these things happen.  What is most often the case is that buyers and sellers get an idea of the relative value of the home to others in the area.  In general, these estimates are a starting point from which they and their agents can start.


A Local Realtor Is Better
These automated tools will never replace an expert in the area.  A Realtor will be able to account for variables the software can't.  In the process, the Realtor can educate the seller or buyer about the market and set a price that makes sense.

In the local market of Los Altos and Los Altos Hills, Zillow is often very wrong.  A few times it has been very accurate, but 9 times out of ten it's way off.  It's often wrong because an entry-level rancher with 1800 square feet can appear on Zillow to be worth $1.2 million because it hasn't been fixed up.  However, with some updates it may be worth as much as $1.5 million.  The 25% discrepancy is huge and requires a Realtor to discuss and explain.  There's a piece of property on Loyola Drive in Los Altos that Zillow shows as worth $902K.  It has a 672 s.f. house and a 20,000 s.f. lot so it's really worth at least $1.2M - based on my expertise.

This problem is even more pronounced in Los Altos Hills.  It's easy to find examples of valuations where updated homes with $3-5 million are given estimated values of $2-3 million.  Just remember to check with your local Realtor to get the most accurate estimate of the value of your home.